Key Takeaways
- AI is polarizing the software job market: young developer employment down 23%, experienced up 18% since ChatGPT, while predictions suggest 15% of U.S. knowledge workers could be replaced within 3 years.
- Apple's valuation multiples (P/E 40x, EV/EBITDA 31x, P/S 11x) are well above historical averages, with P/S at an all-time high.
- Kimi K3's surge in demand (registration halted within 48 hours) validates Jevons paradox: cheaper AI drives higher compute needs, contradicting mainstream media narratives.
- U.S. credit conditions show mixed signals: credit application rate at 46.1% (highest since Oct 2021), but private employer hiring slowed for a fourth consecutive week.
- Anthropic settled a copyright lawsuit for $1.5 billion, the largest settlement of its kind, as predicted by an industry observer.
1. AI Impact on Jobs and Economy
- AI is causing a generational divide in software employment: since ChatGPT's launch in Nov 2022, employment for developers aged 22-25 has dropped 23%, while for those aged 41-49 it has risen 18%. — via 1
- Carson Block and MuddyWatersResearch predict AI will displace about 15% of U.S. knowledge workers within three years, affecting 401(k) flows and major index components. They are short SoFi and watching retail frenzy, while credit spreads are at historic lows. — via 1 2
- Raoul Pal argues that by 2030, most workers won't be human, AI agents will run the economy at million-fold speed, and by 2028 AI will generate more text than all humans since Gutenberg, yet few are prepared. — via 1
- The mainstream media misinterpreted Kimi K3 as proof that China's low-cost frontier model reduces compute demand, but the model halted registration within 48 hours due to overload, exemplifying Jevons paradox: cheaper intelligence will explode compute demand. — via 1
2. U.S. Market and Economic Conditions
- Apple's valuation is stretched: P/E 40x (vs. 10-year avg 26x), EV/EBITDA 31x (vs. 19x), P/S 11x (vs. 6x), with P/S at an all-time high. — via 1
- IBM experienced its largest single-day drop in 115 years (25%), a 15-sigma event theoretically improbable but inevitable in fat-tailed markets. — via 1
- Consumer confidence in large purchases rebounded in June (Univ. of Michigan), while the "Rule of 20" (S&P P/E + CPI = 20) indicates the market remains expensive. Meanwhile, U.S. large-cap ETFs recaptured top inflows as of July 17, while thematic ETFs saw largest outflows. — via 1 2 3
- New York Fed Credit Access Survey shows credit application rate rose to 46.1% in June, the highest since Oct 2021. Private employer hiring slowed for the fourth consecutive week (16,500 in week ending July 4), but Philadelphia Fed services index jumped from -25.8 to +7.4, with orders, prices, and employment improving. — via 1 2
- Japan remains the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries (over $1 trillion), followed by the UK and China. — via 1
