US Household Debt Delinquencies Hit Highest Since 2010 as Semiconductor Index Posts 16-Year Losing Streak

Key Takeaways

1. Nearly one in five US households missed a debt payment in 2025, the highest share since 2010, even as record stock highs enrich wealthier groups.
2. The semiconductor index fell for eight straight sessions, its longest streak in 16 years, while still up more than 50% year to date.
3. NAHB builder confidence dropped to 29 in October, its lowest since June 2012, as mortgage rates and affordability keep buyers sidelined.
4. A Citi strategist says markets have been in a bubble since mid-2025 but still recommends buying, per Meb Faber's account.
5. French government bond spreads jumped to 146 basis points after weekend unrest, with commentators debating the fiscal and social feedback loop.
6. OpenAI moved 25% of production engineers to safety roles and then used its strongest AI model to probe its own systems for vulnerabilities, per Elad Gil's account.

1. Household Finances and Market Extremes

1. Nearly one in five US households were delinquent on a debt payment in 2025, the highest rate since 2010, according to Charlie Bilello. He framed the contrast between record equity highs and struggling households as "two very different economies." 1 2
2. Bilello's account also circulated data arguing that record highs are a poor sell signal: money invested when the S&P 500 was at all-time highs outperformed money invested on any random day since 1989, and the index has set 1,334 record highs since 1957, averaging one every 19 days. 1 2
3. The same account cited federal tax revenue up 65% to $5.4 trillion over the past decade against spending up 92% to $7.4 trillion, with national debt more than doubling from $19.8 trillion to $40.4 trillion. 1 2

2. Markets and Sector Signals

1. The semiconductor index has fallen for eight consecutive sessions, its longest losing streak in 16 years, yet remains up more than 50% year to date, per Liz Ann Sonders. 1
2. The NAHB housing market index fell to 29 in October, below the expected 31 and prior 32, marking its lowest level since June 2012, with mortgage rates and affordability challenges keeping buyers on the sidelines. 1
3. Meb Faber relayed Citi's view that markets have been in a bubble since mid-2025, while Citi's global macro asset allocation head Dirk Willer still advises buying; the discussion also covered 1929 as the only bubble that crashed immediately and Brazil's 9%–10% real rates as a major opportunity. 1
4. Faber also quoted Peter Bernstein that the most dangerous moment is when you are right, because people tend to stay too long in good decisions. 1

3. Europe, Fiscal Stress and Policy Debate

1. Lyn Alden argued that destroying shops to protest inflation and the cost of living actually pushes inflation and living costs higher, describing a feedback loop in which fiscal problems create social problems that worsen fiscal problems. 1
2. Her account circulated that French government bond spreads spiked again to 146 basis points after the weekend unrest. 1
3. Alden said inflation is arriving in waves and is not extreme now, though developed-market inflation has run above target for several years. 1

4. AI and Company Notes

1. Elad Gil's account relayed that OpenAI moved 25% of its production engineers to safety roles and then used its strongest AI model to search its own systems for vulnerabilities, with @gdb offering an explanation. 1
2. Marc Andreessen's account relayed a comment that Muse is very good at executing tasks, even "too good." 1