Japan Hikes to 1.25%, Meta Hits $2.9M Revenue per Employee, and Bilello, Sonders, Pal Weigh In on Markets

Key Takeaways

1. The Bank of Japan raised rates 25bp to 1.25%, its sixth hike this cycle and highest since 1995, though one commentator says it remains behind the curve.
2. Meta's revenue per employee doubled to $2.9M in three years, part of a broader pattern Raoul Pal frames through Metcalfe's law and economic density.
3. Russell 2000 profitability reversed: profitable stocks now beat unprofitable ones by ~500bp after losing last year.
4. Ben Carlson addressed whether an "Agg" yield equals a near-guaranteed 5.2% annual return, noting bonds are more governed by math than stocks.
5. Predictions circulated on QQQ/AI outperforming Bitcoin (90% over 12–36 months) and on ~25% of cities banning autonomous vehicles for years.
6. Meb Faber relayed Roger Lowenstein's point that investor desire for calm conflicts with the richest opportunities appearing during turbulence.

1. Monetary Policy and Markets

1. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the sixth hike of this cycle and the highest level since 1995, though the account characterized it as still far behind the curve. 1 2
2. Charlie Bilello also publishes a weekly letter covering the market's most important charts and themes to tens of thousands of investors, and released a new video, "The Week in Charts," interpreting those charts and themes. 1 2 3

2. Corporate Productivity and Network Value

1. Meta's revenue per employee rose from $1.4M in early 2023 to $2.9M, roughly doubling in three years with headcount nearly unchanged. Raoul Pal compared this with Amazon, which went from $292K per employee in 2021 to $498K now across about 1.5 million employees (roughly 12% CAGR), and Nvidia, which went from $1M three years ago to $5.1M last year and, based on the latest guidance and headcount, is approaching $10M per employee. 1
2. Pal argued it is odd to treat revenue per employee as a macro indicator to get excited about, since it is ostensibly a company metric but can also measure blockchains, cities, or countries — value per active address, GDP per capita for cities, and GDP per capita for countries are all "value divided by nodes." He attributed the ratio's cross-network generality to Metcalfe's law as a valuation metric: if network value grows with n squared, value per node grows with n, and when Metcalfe's law holds, adding nodes raises average node value, while rising node counts with flat or falling density suggest connections are not carrying value. He described revenue/employee density as non-random — Amazon applies intelligence, Meta depends on it, Nvidia manufactures it — concentrating where intelligence is produced and thinning away from it, and advised asking, when someone shows a network by node count, what each node is worth. 1

3. Equity Performance and Investor Behavior

1. Profitability reversed in the Russell 2000: last year unprofitable stocks beat profitable ones (+20% vs +10%), while this year profitable stocks are ahead by about 500 basis points. The index has 1,949 constituents — 1,122 profitable (57%) and 782 unprofitable (40%) — with data from Bloomberg as of September 11, 2026, defining profitable as trailing 12-month EPS above $0. 1
2. Ben Carlson responded to a reader asking whether an "Agg" yield equates to a near-guaranteed 5.2% annual return, saying bonds are more governed by the math than the stock market and discussing the 5% yield, though he did not give a specific conclusion in the post. 1
3. Meb Faber relayed Roger Lowenstein's observation that investors crave smooth markets, yet paradoxically the richest opportunities appear when markets are turbulent. 1

4. Forward-Looking Calls and Conference Notes

1. One commentator predicted a 90% probability that QQQ and leading AI companies outperform Bitcoin over the next 12, 24, and 36 months, and said Bitcoin will not break its prior high in the next 12 months and will trade sideways for a while; the quoted post called Bitcoin's rise a dead-cat bounce unlikely to make new highs soon, with better holdings available for individuals and institutions. 1
2. The same commentator predicted about 25% of cities will ban autonomous vehicles for years, much as they once banned Airbnb and Uber, with a few like New York and Hawaii potentially longer, but fewer than 10% of cities able to block the technology long term; the quoted post said groups pushed New York to bring in Waymo after losing on anti-robotaxi research. 1
3. On the All In Summit, the commentator said he often asks guests whether they want "fastballs and curveballs" or "softballs," and 100% chose fastballs, including Dina and David Sacks, arguing home-run hitters need fastballs; he thanked Dina for a substantive on-stage exchange about the Meta settlement. He also endorsed a comment that three good cops for guests and one bad cop for the audience is a good balance, letting真正的高手 like Satya and Dina show their strength under pressure. 1 2 3
4. The commentator also flagged the Boring Company's tunnel project between Austin and San Antonio — a Hyperloop precursor at over 200 mph — joking it "sounds like extremely boring work — go do it," with the quoted post noting the trip can currently take up to 2.5 hours due to congestion and that Boring Company could reliably cut it to under 30 minutes. 1