Trump Media Falls 97% From Peak as Crypto Losses Mount; Muddy Waters' Nidec Short Hits 32% Decline After ¥632 Billion Writedowns

Key Takeaways

1. Trump Media stock is down 97% from its peak with $1.8 billion in cumulative net losses, while Trump family crypto ventures show $1.4 billion in gains alongside steep token declines.
2. Muddy Waters' 2016 Nidec short thesis is validated by ¥632 billion in writedowns and a 32% stock decline, though the firm says Japanese governance reform remains insufficient.
3. US labor market data shows tight conditions: initial jobless claims at 189,000, unit labor costs at -0.7%, and nonfarm productivity at +3.6%.
4. Market breadth diverges from headline tech weakness: equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.9% while four of 11 sectors gained despite a tech selloff.
5. Raoul Pal's "The Everything Code" ships with strong early Amazon rankings, and he argues AI agents will drive massive future intelligence demand.
6. Uber-Amazon integration expands with Uber Eats on Prime and AWS infrastructure, while Zipline raises $1.5 billion for drone delivery.

1. Trump Media and Crypto Losses

1. Trump Media stock has fallen 97% from its peak to a record low, with $1.8 billion in cumulative net losses since inception, according to Charlie Bilello, who contrasted this with Trump's March 2024 IPO-era claim that Truth Social was "doing very well." Bilello also cited $1.4 billion in profits from Trump family crypto ventures alongside 98.4% and 99.5% declines in the $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins, calling it potentially one of the most blatant corruption cases in US political history — via 1 2

2. Muddy Waters' Nidec Short and Governance

1. Muddy Waters revisited its December 2016 short report on Nidec (6594.T), which alleged a "giant stock hype," a 41% miss on 2015 sales targets, roughly 0.05% annual organic growth from FY2011-2015, ¥36 billion in potentially improper writedowns, channel stuffing in China per four former employees, and ¥14.5 billion in loans to management. Ten years later, Nidec has recorded ¥632 billion (about $4 billion) in writedowns, been placed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's special watch list, and its stock has fallen 32% from the pre-report close of ¥2,472 (split-adjusted) to ¥1,673 on November 5 — via 1
2. Carson Block said the current scandal shows Japanese corporate governance reform has not gone deep enough, a decade after the short was placed — via 1

3. US Labor Market and Macro Data

1. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, below the 196,000 expected and the prior 195,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.718 million, above the 1.710 million expected and the prior 1.695 million. The largest increases came from Oregon (+0.8k), Illinois (+0.8k), and California (+0.6k), with the biggest declines in Texas (-1.8k), New York (-1.2k), and Kentucky (-0.8k) — via 1
2. Q3 unit labor costs were -0.7%, down from +1.9% (revised up from +1.2%), while nonfarm productivity was +3.6%, up from +2.1% (revised down from +1.4%) — via 1
3. ADP data showed job-switchers' total compensation rose 7.6% year-over-year in October, the largest gain since March 2024, while stayers' pay rose 4.4%; private-sector hiring increased across all firm sizes — via 1 2
4. ChallengerGray reported layoff announcements down 71.3% year-over-year, with 617,189 cumulative through October, a 44% decline from 1.1 million in the first 10 months of 2025 — via 1

4. Market Breadth and Sector Rotation

1. Despite a tech selloff, four of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, including consumer staples at +1.5%, and the equal-weight S&P 500 gained 1.9% on the day, highlighting a "market of stocks" dynamic — via 1 2
2. Liz Ann Sonders noted that many investors are unaware that equal-weight indices and small caps have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year, and that discussions of "growth" or "value" performance require clarity on index definitions — via 1
3. Sonders also cited a Tensor10 chart showing 6 of 10 stocks ranked in the top 10 by contribution (price performance × market cap), but only 2 ranked as high on pure price performance — via 1
4. The rolling correlation between 10-year Treasury yields and the S&P 500 has fallen to slightly negative, according to Sonders — via 1

5. Raoul Pal's Book and AI Demand Thesis

1. Raoul Pal's "The Everything Code" has begun shipping and was ranked No. 1 in three Amazon categories, two of them in Australia, according to a reader. Pal described the book as the product of years of work and asked readers to leave Amazon reviews and share photos — via 1 2 3 4
2. Pal cited @DMattin arguing that people systematically underestimate future demand for intelligence, often extrapolating from today's limited uses; the largest intelligence users will be AI agents doing work through other AI agents, implying enormous future buildout — via 1
3. Pal argued the system is "rigged" not by oligarchs in a room but by math, demographics, and the cumulative effects of decisions made decades ago — forces that are large, slow, and measurable — via 1

6. Uber-Amazon Expansion and Drone Delivery

1. Jason detailed an Amazon-embedded Uber Eats experience: Amazon account authentication for Uber, free delivery for Prime members on orders over $25, and a doughnut delivery to a ranch, calling it highly valuable for Prime users and bullish for both Uber and Amazon — via 1 2
2. A repost said the Uber-Amazon partnership is expanding: Uber infrastructure on AWS, Uber Eats in Amazon Prime, and Zoox coming to Uber — via 1
3. Jason said Zipline raised $1.5 billion to build a national drone delivery network, arguing it could complete billions of deliveries through Uber Eats alone with 15-minute delivery and no delivery fee or tip — via 1

7. Political and Policy Commentary

1. Clifford Asness criticized Republican post-midterm recaps, arguing that three of four cited voter demands amounted to "blaming Jews" and that the fourth discussed cost of living while avoiding the "tariff disaster." He said the main cause of defeat was Trump and his team, citing an inability to articulate "America First," Trump's selection of candidates in Texas and North Carolina over "imaginary old grudges," and the problem that Trump is "everywhere" on the ballot even when he says he is not — via 1 2 3 4
2. Asness also said the Vance recap omitted the administration's "selling influence and even pardons" corruption, which he argued hurts Republican voters who care about the rule of law more than the data suggest — via 1 2 3 4
3. Jason argued Democrats cannot win long-term by "strangling markets and AI deals" through regulation, tax hikes, and disparaging entrepreneurs, and should support pro-capitalism moderates like Rahm Emanuel. He also advocated publicly supporting the AI industry and permitting data centers where communities accept them, while taxing them heavily to fund universal healthcare — via 1 2
4. Jason said the data center industry already pays for its own energy, recycles water, obtains community consent, creates jobs, pays taxes, and donates to communities, and that if Texas Rep. James Talarico's comments are accurate, it would be highly positive for Texas and the data center industry — via 1
5. Jason congratulated Polymarket: its favored candidates won 419 of 426 decided races (98.4%) on the day before the midterms — via 1