Key Takeaways
Value, small-cap, and international stocks have outperformed large-cap tech in 2026, with the Magnificent Seven declining. — via 1 2
The top 9 S&P 500 performers this year are all tied to AI infrastructure, while 17 of the worst 30 are software & services, highlighting a stark AI-driven divergence. — via 1 2
Commodity prices have surged since the Iran war, with sulfur up 146%, European natural gas up 98%, and crude oil up 35%. — via 1 2
Meb Faber discusses North American reindustrialization driven by cheap natural gas, bullish on energy and homebuilders, and warns 10-year yield could reach 7% if inflation persists at 4-5%. — via 1
Raoul Pal argues that AI agents will not buy software like humans, creating a shift to an "agent economy" where investment opportunities lie. — via 1
Lyn Alden highlights that $8 trillion in market cap supports open-source AI models, and Bitchat's daily active users in India exceed 330k. — via 1 2
1. Market Rotation and Macro Outlook
Value, small-cap, and international stocks have outperformed large-cap tech in 2026. The Magnificent Seven are down year-to-date, while diversification is working again. — via 1 2
Meb Faber's conversation covers North American reindustrialization via cheap natural gas, bullish outlook on energy and homebuilders, and a warning that if inflation stays at 4-5%, the 10-year yield could reach 7%. — via 1
US 30-year mortgage rate currently at 6.58% (highest since Aug 2025), compared to 2020s average of 5.3% and peak of 7.79% in Oct 2023. Florida cities see significant price declines, with Miami becoming the strongest buyer's market (sellers exceed buyers by 140%). — via 1 2 3
2. AI Infrastructure vs. Software & the Open-Source Debate
The top 9 S&P 500 stocks this year are all beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom, while 17 of the 30 worst-performing stocks are software & services companies, as investors see AI as an existential threat to the software industry. — via 1 2
Raoul Pal argues that most markets are priced for doomsday, but traditional software and SaaS still assume humans as the primary customer. AI agents will not buy software the way humans do—they don't need dashboards, subscriptions, or logins. The future lies in the "agent economy," building for AI agents as customers, and most are not prepared. — via 1
Lyn Alden notes that $8 trillion in market cap supports open-source AI models, which benefits consumers and most businesses. Meanwhile, Jason strongly advocates for AI sovereignty, arguing open-source is critical for startups because frontier model companies will compete with their customers, and AI should not be monopolized. — via 1 2 3
Lyn Alden reports that Bitchat downloads have surged in India, which now accounts for 85% of global downloads, with daily active users exceeding 330k. — via 1
3. Commodity Surge and Geopolitical Risks
Since the Iran war began, commodity prices have spiked dramatically: sulfur up 146%, European natural gas up 98%, heating oil up 63%, gasoline up 38%, crude oil up 35%. Trump calls the blockade "genius and perfect," waiting for opponents to surrender. — via 1 2
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since March 1983, down 310 million barrels (50%) over the past five years. — via 1
4. Politics and Policy: Trump's Deficits and Crypto Failures
Lyn Alden criticizes Trump as the "crypto president" who made $1.4 billion in crypto profits but failed to pass crypto legislation, calling it a fitting outcome for the crypto industry. — via 1
Jason criticizes the Trump administration for leading to a $2 trillion deficit, stating the president is bankrupting the country. — via 1
