US producer prices rise 6.3% year over year as fiscal gap and market volatility draw scrutiny

US producer prices rose 6.3% over the past year, with a five-year annual average of 4.2%, feeding claims that 2% inflation is a myth.
A cited budget figure puts FY2026 US federal revenue at $5.4 trillion against $7.4 trillion in spending.
The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, its 20th single-day drop above 1% this year; the author calls such swings normal.
Ten-year gains span Nvidia +13,127%, Bitcoin +12,645% and the S&P 500 ETF +319%, against +39% US inflation and +14% for a US bond ETF.
US homes for sale outnumber buyers by more than 580,000 (63%), the widest gap since records began in 2013.
One author argues global inflation is rising and major central banks remain behind the curve, expecting more rate hikes.
Lyn Alden disputes the claim that the long end of the bond market is out of control, citing a flat yield curve and above-target inflation.

US producer prices climbed 6.3% over the past year and averaged 4.2% annually over five years, according to Charlie Bilello; a reposted item used those figures to argue that 2% inflation is a “myth” and that the Fed has lost all credibility on fighting inflation. The same reposted material put FY2026 federal revenue at $5.4 trillion and spending at $7.4 trillion, and said US consumer prices have risen at a 4% annualized pace since January 2020, twice the Fed’s 2% target, leaving CPI 14% higher than it would be under adequate Fed performance. 1 2 3
Bilello also said global inflation is rising and that the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England remain behind the curve, expecting more rate hikes. Lyn Alden pushed back on the idea that the long end of the bond market has run out of control, saying the yield curve is flat and yields are broadly elevated from the short to the long end because inflation has stayed above target. 1 2

The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, its 20th single-day decline of more than 1% this year; Bilello described this as normal volatility, noting an average of 29 such drops a year since 1928 and calling downside risk the cost of returns. Ben Carlson used year-to-date returns to rebut claims of severe pain beneath the surface and highly concentrated gains: S&P 500 +13%, mid-caps +10.1%, small caps +10.7%, overseas stocks +9.5% and emerging markets +15.4%. 1 2 3
Over ten years, Bilello listed Nvidia +13,127%, Bitcoin +12,645%, AMD +7,733%, Tesla +2,607%, Apple +1,177%, Microsoft +938%, Google +755%, Amazon +509%, Meta +460%, the S&P 500 ETF +319% and a gold ETF +220%, against +39% US inflation and +14% for a US bond ETF. Separately, US homes for sale outnumbered buyers by more than 580,000, or 63%, the largest gap since data began in 2013. 1 2

Raoul Pal’s “The Everything Code” framework argues that aging populations shrink labor forces and slow growth, pushing governments to borrow; debt is never repaid but managed through currency debasement slow enough that most people barely notice, and that debasement sets the real hurdle rate for money, with only crypto and technology beating it long term. He says that within roughly four years exponential technologies including AI, robotics, energy and crypto will outpace the old system, producing angrier and more fractured politics, harder-to-verify information and a changed meaning of doing business — an endpoint he calls “The Economic Singularity” — while distinguishing this from the older problem of wages failing to keep up with living costs as governments debase currency. 1 2
Pal also argues that AI agents will not choose blockchains for philosophy, ideology or community, but will switch chains for roughly 10 milliseconds of efficiency; chains will therefore compete on cheaper, faster infrastructure for machine users, and more agents on-chain will in turn push infrastructure costs down and speed up, driving exponential growth. He said the full argument appears in a book published November 3 and thanked those who preordered, saying preorders help rankings and reach. 1 2

Liz Ann Sonders noted a 5-percentage-point single-day gap between the day’s best sector, energy, and the worst, technology. Marc Andreessen’s account highlighted music and video work made with Slopcannon and @boneGPT, including the song “Misalignment Blues,” a #Sloptoberfest entry titled “SINGULARITY REBORN” with instrumentation made with Grok and Suno and video made with Slopcannon and a bot, and a Slopcore MV. 1 2 3 4
Jason’s account carried a podcast preview in which Ben Horowitz guest-hosts, covering the post-debt-sale drop in CoreWeave shares and whether the AI trade is breaking, AI deflation and the future of software, warning signs and valuation around an Anthropic IPO, a Sacks segment and a Gates AI warning. The same account also shared a conversation tied to “You Can See Everything” published October 15, the day before the film’s release, and added details about knowing Elizabeth Holmes. 1 2

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