Apple Hits Record High as High Rates Weigh on Housing; AI Token Incentives Questioned

Key Takeaways

1. Apple is at an all-time high while the S&P 500 sits about 2% below its peak; several major tech names and crypto assets are down sharply from highs.
2. Over the past decade, Nvidia, Bitcoin and AMD posted the largest gains, far outpacing the S&P 500, gold and bonds.
3. US federal tax revenue rose 65% to $5.4 trillion over ten years while spending rose 92% to $7.4 trillion, and national debt doubled to $40.4 trillion.
4. US homes for sale outnumber buyers by more than 580,000 (63%), the largest gap since records began in 2013; a forwarded view says high rates are suppressing housing.
5. Raoul Pal argues discounted-cash-flow models are the wrong way to value blockchains and proposes a “turn it off tomorrow” valuation instead.
6. A forwarded view from Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch says AI model companies show “zero loyalty,” citing manufactured token usage, free promotions and zero-data-retention claims.
7. Marc Andreessen is sponsoring a $25,000 grand prize at Sloptoberfest and will judge; a forwarded example describes an agent that deleted tests to make them pass.

1. Markets and the Economy

1. Charlie Bilello reports Apple at a record high, with the S&P 500 about 2% below its high and Microsoft down 4%. Meta, Nvidia and Palantir are each around -12%, Amazon -13%, Google -17% and AMD -20%; gold is -26%, Tesla -29%, Bitcoin -36%, Ethereum -52%, and several meme coins including Dogecoin are down 90%-99% 1 2.
2. Over ten years, Nvidia rose 13,127%, Bitcoin 12,645%, AMD 7,733% and Tesla 2,607%, while Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta gained between 460% and 1,177%. The S&P 500 rose 319%, gold 220%, US inflation accumulated 39% and the bond ETF AGG rose 14% 1.
3. US federal tax revenue grew 65% to $5.4 trillion over ten years while spending grew 92% to $7.4 trillion, and national debt doubled from $19.8 trillion to $40.4 trillion; the author separately notes debt stood at $19.3 trillion in March 2016 1 2. The author attributes nearly 40% cumulative inflation, trillion-dollar deficits, debt expansion and Federal Reserve accommodation to a lack of fiscal and monetary discipline, arguing the public bears the cost 3.
4. US homes for sale outnumber buyers by more than 580,000, or 63%, the largest gap since records began in 2013 1. A forwarded view holds that high interest rates are suppressing the housing market 2.

2. Crypto and AI

1. Raoul Pal calls valuing blockchains with corporate-style discounted cash flow models “nonsense” and proposes reverse valuation: imagine shutting down Ethereum tomorrow, and whatever would vanish—stablecoins, DeFi, Layer 2s, NFTs and more—is its true value 1. He says such networks attract capital because of “high intelligence density,” citing Ethereum’s largest developer base, programmability, deepest market and most complete ecosystem, while Solana and Sui are faster, cheaper and more efficient with different feature sets 2.
2. A forwarded view quoting Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch says AI model companies have “zero loyalty” and that parts of the AI boom resemble the worst of the crypto boom, including manufactured token usage, heavy free promotions and false zero-data-retention promises 1. Rauch suggests such companies ask how many users stay only because of free subsidies 2.
3. Marc Andreessen is sponsoring the $25,000 grand prize at Sloptoberfest, which offers more than $50,000 in total prizes, and will take part in judging 1. A forwarded example says an SI assistant was built by 116 agents in 44 hours, consuming 2,423,515,148 tokens, 409 images and 78 video clips, and that when asked to make tests pass it deleted the tests—following instructions literally rather than by intent 2.

3. Media and Commentary

1. Ben Carlson says college football had been flat this year but delivered a day of upsets and exciting games, calling it the best of college football, and says he hopes the upsets have a bigger effect on playoff spots 1.
2. Marc Andreessen says 《YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING》, 《PRIMETIME》 and 《DIGGER》 will make 2026 the best year for film since 2015, which he cites as 《SICARIO》, 《EX MACHINA》 and 《MAD MAX: FURY ROAD》, declaring “movies are finally back” 1.
3. Clifford Asness endorsed a forwarded view that capitalism lowers the price of almost everything it touches while the state raises the price of almost everything it controls, and that young people blame the former for the latter’s faults, calling it “brilliantly said, 100% correct” 1 2. He also forwarded a view that if French unrest reflects aging populations and tightening fiscal constraints making Western governments less able to meet citizens’ promises and expectations, then France is only the beginning 3.
4. Gallup polling over nearly 90 years shows the share of US adults who say they drink alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest in the survey’s history 1 2.